Save to curb inflation, RBA says

Australians need to save more for the economy to avoid a more rapid run-up in inflation, triggered by nation’s rising terms of trade, the Reserve Bank said today.

“In putting together the Reserve Bank’s forecasts it has been assumed that more of this boost to income is saved than was the case in the earlier boom in the terms of trade,” RBA assistant governor Phillip Lowe.

“This reflects two factors. The first is the different position of the federal budget and the second is the more cautious approach to spending currently being displayed by the household sector.”

The federal budget, handed down this week, contained no major increases in public spending and is expected the return to a surplus by 2012-13.

In that time, the RBA forecasts Chinese steel production will continue to drive demand for Australian iron ore and coal strong, boosting the nation’s terms of trade.

Terms of trade are the prices of a nation’s exports relative to its imports.

“If this lift in saving does not occur, then demand in the economy could well be stronger than forecast, and this would put additional pressure on capacity,” he said.

A lack of spare capacity in the economy has pushed the year-to-March inflation figure to 2.9 per cent from 2.5 per cent in the year to December, which surprised the RBA, Mr Lowe said.

“Disinflationary forces in the economy are not quite as strong as previously expected, largely because the economy has performed better than previously expected,” Mr Lowe said, in the speech delivered to Colonial First State Investment Forum in Sydney.

The RBA expects inflation to fall only to 2.75 per cent later this year, less than originally anticipated after the release of the March data.

Retail sales have remained lacklustre since the middle of last year, after the end of the government’s cash stimulus grants to households during the financial crisis. Six interest rate rises since October have also cut into demand at retailers, with a number of businesses including Fantastic Furniture, Clive Peeters and Woolworth’s flagging weaker sales ahead.

The RBA lifted interest rates to 4.5 per cent his month, creating more headwinds for shoppers. The latest rate rise added another $46 to the average monthly repayment cost on a $300,000, 25-year mortgage.

Investors currently foresee no chance of an interest rate rise in June, but predict the official cash rate will be at 5 per cent within a year, according to Credit Suisse data.

The central bank predicts 3.25 per cent economic growth this year accelerating to 3.75-4 per cent growth in the next couple of years, amid rising prices for commodities exports.

Source  :  www.watoday.com.au

Advertisement

Read Full Post »

Minister welcomes Baird review

The Minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Senator Chris Evans, today welcomed the final report of the Baird Review on the legislation governing international education.

It is most pleasing to note Mr Baird’s support for the Rudd Government’s changes to the skilled migration program announced on 8 February 2010.

The skilled migration program changes will encourage overseas students to focus on obtaining a quality education from a high quality provider by removing incentives for students to apply for a course simply in the hope of being granted permanent residence.

Under the changes, the wide-ranging migration occupations in demand list was revoked and will be replaced mid-year by a new and more targeted skilled occupations list to be developed by the independent body, Skills Australia.

The new skilled occupations list will be tightly focused on high value skills that will assist in addressing Australia’s future skills needs. It will deliver a mix of skills across the professions and trades in areas such as healthcare, engineering and mining.

International students currently studying in Australia who hold a vocational, higher education or postgraduate student visa will still be able to apply for permanent residence if their occupation is on the new skilled occupations list.

Students currently studying a course in an occupation that is not on the new skilled occupations list will have until the end of 2012 to apply for a temporary skilled graduate visa which will enable them to spend up to 18 months in Australia to acquire work experience and find an Australian employer willing to sponsor them.

It must be remembered that a student visa is just that: a visa to study. It does not give someone an automatic entitlement to permanent residence.

International students should be focused on obtaining a good qualification from a quality education provider in a field in which they want to work. The changes will in no way impact on international students coming to Australia to gain a legitimate qualification and then return home.

Similarly, Australia’s migration program is not and should not be determined by the courses studied by international students.

Australia will continue to welcome international students and provide an opportunity for those who have the necessary qualifications and skills to find an Australian employer willing to sponsor them for a permanent visa.

Source  :  www.immigov.au

Read Full Post »

Rates now closer to normal, RBA boss says

Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has signalled interest rates are on their way back up with mortgage rates likely to edge up between half and a full percentage point.

Giving evidence to the House of Representatives economics committee in Canberra, Mr Stevens said the RBA’s focus continued to be on what mortgage rates were offered by commercial banks rather than on the Reserve’s official cash rate.

He said given the commercial banks had lifted rates over and above what the RBA had done, there was still about a half and a full percentage point to go before mortgage rates were back to what the Reserve would consider close to their long term average.

“There’s a little distance to go yet before I think you could characterise the setting of interest rates as normal or average,” he said.

The RBA surprised markets by leaving official rates on hold at its February meeting.

Mr Stevens said on top of the Reserve’s own lift in official rates, the commercial banks actions had effectively delivered three and a half interest rate rises to mortgages cases, and in the case of Westpac customers, four rate hikes.

He said one of the advantages of lifting rates as the RBA did in the last three months of 2009 was that it could hold rates in February and get a clearer picture of how the economy was travelling.

“You get that luxury when you can wait a little a bit further down the line,” he said.

Mr Stevens said Australia had performed much better than even the RBA had expected out of the global recession.

But he warned that meant the economy was now heading into an upswing stronger than otherwise would have been the case.

“With the economy having had only a mild downturn with begin the upswing with less spare capacity than would typically be the case after a recession,” he said.

“There’s less scope for robust demand growth without inflation starting to rise again down the track.

“Monetary policy must be careful not to overstay a very expansionary setting.”

Mr Stevens said the resources sector in particular was looking to grow quickly, with the terms of trade likely to head back to the record highs seen in 2008 this year.

He also highlighted the strength of Australia’s sovereign debt position, hosing down fears the country was carrying too much debt.

“Australia’s position is by any measure very strong indeed,” he said.

The governor also played down fears raised by Opposition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce that Australia could default on its debts.

Mr Stevens said Australia had never defaulted before and there were no signs it would now.

“I very much doubt there ever will be,” he said. 

“Monetary policy must be careful not to overstay a very expansionary setting.”

Mr Stevens said the resources sector in particular was looking to grow quickly, with the terms of trade likely to head back to the record highs seen in 2008 this year.

He also highlighted the strength of Australia’s sovereign debt position, hosing down fears the country was carrying too much debt.

“Australia’s position is by any measure very strong indeed,” he said.

The governor also played down fears raised by Opposition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce that Australia could default on its debts.

Mr Stevens said Australia had never defaulted before and there were no signs it would now.

“I very much doubt there ever will be,” he said.

Source www.thewest.com.au

Read Full Post »

Qantas increases fares before Christmas

QANTAS will increase international airfares by up 5 per cent this week, offering further evidence that the recent run of exceptionally cheap air fares is ending.

In its first international fare increase since June last year, Qantas will raise first-class and business-class fares by 3 per cent on Friday. The increases will affect popular routes such as Britain, Europe, Singapore and Hong Kong but not the hotly contested routes to the US, reports The Australian.

Premium economy and economy tickets will rise by 5 per cent, reflecting the relative strength of the leisure markets as travellers responded to the cheaper airfares and a high Australian dollar. These increases apply to wider range of destinations that include North America.

“Qantas reviews pricing continuously on all routes, taking into account demand and capacity, competitor actions and business performance,” a Qantas spokeswoman said.

Qantas has already been successful in raising domestic airfares by 5-10 per cent and desperately needs to get international fares up to improve yields, which in October were 24 per cent down on the previous year.

Qantas will test the water to see whether the increases affect passenger loads and whether competitors match them.

But even if the new fares stick, increased competition and continuing market softness is unlikely to see ticket prices return to previous high levels any time soon.

Read the full report in The Australian.

Source  :  www.news.com.au

Read Full Post »

Chefs and hairdressers top Australia’s most wanted list

Chefs and hairdressers will top the list of most sought-after jobs as Australia emerges from the wake of the global financial crisis. It is thought that the highly transient nature of these jobs, with a high turnover and burnout rate, contributes to the skills shortage in these areas and the inability of supply to meet demand.

Other in-demand occupations will include health-care workers, educators, automotive and metal tradespeople, and IT professionals. The accounting and IT sectors are expected to experience high demand because of industry growth over the next two years.

Not so lucky are those in advertising, public relations and finance, as yet further job cuts are expected in these industries in the next couple of years. Those in marketing have been particularly hard-hit as companies slash marketing budgets in an attempt to stay afloat.

The construction industry has also been struggling as many building and development projects ground to a halt, leaving many construction workers out of work. However, with the Federal Government expected to fund new projects with its stimulus package until 2011, things could start looking up in the near future for the building industry. Industry insiders predict an impending resurgence and consequent shortage of construction workers and apprentices.
 
Some projections anticipate that unemployment will peak at around 7.5 per cent in mid-2010 to early 2011, but those sectors benefiting from public funding and the stimulus package – such as the health sector, education and infrastructure – should be well-protected and enjoy sustained demand.

Jobs such as chef, cook, hairdresser, automotive electrician, panelbeater, metal machinist, welder, bricklayer, carpenter, electrician, plumber, accountant, computing professionals and a variety of health care professionals (dentists, GPs, nurses and many others) all appear on the current Migration Occupations in Demand List (MODL) as the government attempts to fill in some of the gaps through skilled migration.

Not surprisingly given this outlook, enrolment in vocational courses in hospitality, hairdressing, automative trades and IT are up as students and job-seekers attempt to find work and fill the skills shortage gap. If you are at a career crossroads, trying to decide what to study or just trying to find a job, perhaps you, too, should consider jumping on the skills shortage bandwagon – and land yourself a job in the process.

Source  :  www.careerfaqs.com.au

Read Full Post »

Cliff Richard and The Shadows sell out Perth gig

There are plenty of passionate Cliff Richard fans in this town, with the musical legend’s Burswood Dome concert alongside The Shadows sold out.

Fans have been starved of the chance to see the band live since 1961, resulting in unprecedented demand.

A second concert was announced. The band will be playing again on Sunday February 7.

Legendary guitarist Hank Marvin, who plays in The Shadows, lives a mostly quiet existence in East Perth, but will surely bust out some hot tunes during the tour.

It is 50 years since Cliff Richard and The Shadows got together. This Australian tour, billed as their Final Reunion, will bring them back to Oz for the first time since 1961.

Promoter Paul Dainty said there had been “unprecedented demand for tickets for this tour.  Cliff Richard and the Shadows have not been to Australia since 1961 so it’s been a long wait to see this legendary band”.

Tickets for the Sunday February 7 show go on sale on September 17, from midday.

Bookings can be made through www.ticketek.com.au or 132 849.

Source  :  www.watoday.com.au

Read Full Post »

New animal-friendly airline Pet Airways a hit

PEOPLE love their pets, sometimes more than they love other people.

So it is not a surprise that a start-up company, Pet Airways, has had a massive response since offering to transport dogs and cats in a much more caring way.

Precious pets won’t be left to fend for themselves in cages in a freezing cargo hold – an experience that so scared a Jack Russell terrier owned by husband-and-wife team Alysa Binder and Dan Wiesel that they decided to launch Pet Airways.

All of the passengers using the new airline’s cargo plane get to travel in the front of the plane in special carriers installed instead of seats.

They are escorted to the plane by pet-loving attendants who check on their precious cargo every 15 minutes.

The pets are given pre-boarding walks and bathroom breaks and also have access to a “Pet Lounge” where future fliers can wait and sniff the furniture before flights.

The demand for the service has been staggering, with flights rapidly booked out for the first two months.

Operating between regional airports in New York, Washington, Chicago, Denver and Los Angeles, Pet Airways charges about $315 per trip, which is comparable with charges on less pet-friendly airlines.

The company is already looking to add more flights and cities soon, and hopes to fly to 25 destinations within three years.

Betsy Saul, co-founder of Petfinder.com which ranks the pet-friendliness of various airlines, said she was excited about the expected impact Pet Airways would have on pet travel across major airlines.

”The entire industry will stretch because of Pet Airways,” Betsy told the Associated Press.

Source : www.news.com.au

Read Full Post »

Retail hiring jumps on spending hopes

Retailers are boosting staff numbers in anticipation of an improvement in consumer spending, according to the Australian Retailers Association.                

The industry group’s executive director, Richard Evans, said surveys of association members showed a 12 per cent jump in employment for small and medium-sized retailers this month, painting a much more positive picture than figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics earlier this month.

The number of people employed in the retail sector fell by less than 0.1 per cent last month compared with February, on a seasonally adjusted basis, but the ABS also reported an increase in underutilisation—the proportion of the workforce that is either unemployed or not working as many hours as it would like.

The rate of underutilisation among female workers was 9.1per cent last month, compared with 6.4 per cent for men, which the ABS attributed to the larger proportion of women working in industries with high levels of casual employment, such as retail.

However, Mr Evans said most retailers were holding on to skilled staff in preparation for rising demand, with 68 per cent reporting no change in employment levels in the past quarter.

“A further 16 per cent of retailers actually increased their number of staff during the same period,” he said.

“Retailing works in cycles, and although the sector has experienced a downturn, good retailers are doing their best to hold on to skilled staff as consumer confidence continues to grow and a new type of consumer emerges.”

The same trend was in play among the bigger retailers, with David Jones boosting staffing levels around the Mother’s Day shopping period after the delivery of the federal government’s fiscal stimulus package in April led to a sharp rebound in sales.

Mr Evans said the stimulus package and lower interest rates meant most consumers had more cash available to spend, but “negative and fear-filled commentary” had fuelled a tendency among consumers to cut discretionary spending in favour of saving or paying off debt.

This meant shoppers would be in a better position to spend when confidence picks up again—with the ARA forecasting an improvement as soon as the September quarter.

Source  :  www.careerone.com.au

Read Full Post »

House prices tipped to lift by 2012

HOUSE prices could rise by as much as 22 per cent during the next three years, an economic forecaster says.  

”The conditions are ripe for a sustained recovery in residential property prices,” according to BIS Shrapnel’s Residential Property Prospects, 2009 to 2012, report.

”Low interest rates, solid growth in rents and housing shortages are evident in most markets.

”However, the current economic malaise will mean confidence will only recover slowly during 2009/10.”

BIS Shrapnel senior project manager and study author Angie Zigomanis said that, at this stage, all of the action was occurring at the lower-priced end of the market.

This is due to a surge in first-home buyer demand as a result of the federal government’s first home owner boost scheme and low interest rates, he said.

BIS Shrapnel forecasts there will be 180,000 first-home buyers in 2009.

Although first-home buyer demand was expected to ease after the expiry of the government’s boost scheme at the end of 2009, upgraders and investors were expected to take the baton, Mr Zigomanis said.

”We expect rising confidence in the prospects for an economic recovery in 2010, so investors are likely to return in greater numbers, attracted by increased rental returns and low interest rates.”

Among the state capitals, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide will show the strongest price growth over the next three years, at 19 per cent.

More moderate growth is expected in Brisbane, Hobart, and Canberra, while price growth in Perth and Darwin is expected to be weak as the local economies of these cities are impacted by a decline in investment spending in the resources sector.

BIS Shrapnel estimates Sydney’s median house price at June 2009 to be $530,000, and predicts it will rise by mid-2012 to $630,000. Melbourne’s current median house price is estimated at $425,000, rising to $507,000 by June 2012.

In Adelaide, the median price is estimated at $360,000 and predicted to climb to $430,000 over the three years.

Among other cities around Australia, Newcastle and Wollongong are expected to benefit from the migration of residents from Sydney over the coming years.

The median house price in Newcastle is expected to soar 22 per cent over the three years, while Wollongong is forecast to see growth of 20 per cent in the same period.

In Brisbane, the average house is estimated to cost $391,000 now and is expected to cost $455,000 by mid-2012, an increase of 16 per cent.

Hobart’s median house price is estimated to be $335,000 and will rise by 15 per cent to $385,000 over the three year period.

An average house in Canberra is estimated to cost $440,000, increasing to $515,000 by 2012, a rise of 17 per cent.

In Perth, the estimated median house price is $425,000, expected to reach $475,000 in three years, up 12 per cent.

Darwin’s forecast median house price is $470,000, predicted to show an increase of 11 per cent over the three years.

For the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast and Cairns, BIS Shrapnel forecasts prices will increase by 14 per cent, while Townsville prices are expected to grow 13 per cent over the three years.

Source  :  www.news.com.au

Read Full Post »

Skilled Migration: Dispelling the Myths

Source  :  Alan Collet   www.gomatilda.com

Since Australia’s Immigration Minister announced changes to the skilled migration program at the end of last year there has been a lot of misunderstanding among intending skilled migrants. In this article we try to dispel some of the myths.

In no particular order, here are some of the comments we have heard in recent months:

Australia has stopped accepting skilled migrants

Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, Australia’s skilled migration program (the amount of visas the Immigration Minister requires his Department to grant annually) is the highest on record this year, with a planned 115,000 skilled visas to be granted in the year to 30th of June, 2009.

The skilled program for 2009/10 is planned to be 108,100, which is the third highest program on record.

By way of comparison the skilled program in the last few years has delivered the following outcomes:

 
2007/08: 108,540
– 2006/07: 97,920
– 2005/06: 97,340
– 2004/05: 77,880

My occupation is not on the Critical Skills List and I can’t be sponsored by a State or Territory Government. That means I will never get a visa.

It is true to say that the Minister’s announcements have impacted quite significantly on the processing of skilled visas, with occupations on the CSL and State/Territory Sponsored skilled visa applications being the only offshore skilled visa applications that are being processed to a decision at the moment.

However, there will come a time (we anticipate in the next 3 to 4 months) when Department of Immigration case officers will have to move onto the next category on the Minister’s priority list, namely applications where an occupation on the Migration Occupations in Demand List (or MODL) is nominated.

We anticipate that many applicants with MODL occupations will have sought sponsorship from a State or Territory Government (as MODL occupations have tended to be included on their Wanted Skills Lists) and as such we think it likely that remaining skilled visa applications will start to be looked at with a view to visas being granted during the.

It should also be remembered that when the total skilled migration program was in the region of 70,000 annually processing times were typically 9 to 12 months – even allowing for heightened demand in recent years the large program total that is now available should allow visa application processing times to be closer to 12 months over the next year to 18 months.

And as ever, the sooner a visa application is lodged the sooner a visa will be granted.

I won’t be able to obtain sponsorship from a State or Territory Government

To a verying degree all of the States and Territories in Australia are sponsoring skilled individuals for the grant of visas. Some are sponsoring for the grant of provisional subclass 475 visas (which provide for permanent residency via a second visa application once subclass 475 visaholders have been residing and working in a regional area for the required period), while others are sponsoring for subclass 176 permanent residency visas.

The key question for intending skilled migrants is therefore which States and Territories are sponsoring my occupation, and for what subclass of visa.

If I am sponsored by a State or Territory Government I will have to live there while I remain in Australia

Technically, that is not the case. If applying to a State or Territory Government for sponsorship you will be asked to provide information that demonstrates you are genuine in your intentions to reside in that State or Territory.

Indeed, in most cases you will be asked to sign an undertaking to reside in the sponsoring State/Territory for at least 2 years.

We would add that when applying for sponsorship you should be completing the application in good faith, with a genuine intention to reside in the State or Territory to which you are applying.

Note also that if applying for sponsorship of a subclass 475 (provisional) visa you will be subject to a visa condition that requires you to live and work in a regional area of Australia, and that you can anticipate that this will be checked when you apply for permanent residency in due course. 

Employers are no longer able to sponsor individuals for skilled visas

This comment is typically heard in the context of subclass 457 visas – which is the long term temporary residency visa.

It is fair to say that Australia’s Immigration Minister has sought to change 457 visa sentiment amongst employers by issuing “clarification” in the last few months in the form of policy guidance to his Department. This has included (amongst other things) requiring employers to more clearly demonstrate the benefit to Australia arising as a consequence of the employment of the nominated individual following the grant of a 457 visa.

However, this amendment of policy settings has not caused a cessation of 457 visa grants – far from it. Indeed, Go Matilda has had many 457 visas granted in the last few months.

Even if I obtain a visa, the global economic crisis means I won’t be able to get a job when I move to Australia

The Australian economy has held up remarkably well in comparison with other first world countries, and indeed has thus far avoided a technical recession. This is quite possibly due to its closer associations economically with South East Asia and China, and the financial boost associated with a growth in population, most notably through the large migration programs of the last few years.

By contrast the UK has found itself more closely aligned with the fortunes of the US, and with the collapse of wealth through banking and housing failures.

No-one can say that any one individual will be certain to secure employment when they move to Australia. However, the prospects for work are generally considered to be brighter in Australia than in the UK, US, etc, which should augur well for intending migrants.

I won’t be able to sell my house and the GBP – AUD exchange rate is awful

Yes, the economies of the world are in a dreadful state at the moment, and the bottom has fallen out of the housing market in the UK.

However, there is no requirement for you to move to Australia as soon as your visa is granted – permanent skilled visas require you to enter Australia by an initial entry date, which is usually 12 months from the earlier of the date of police clearance certificates and the date medical examinations were attended.

That required initial entry can be on a holiday, and the permanent move can be a few years later – at any time up to 5 years after visa grant – by which time we suggest the economies of the world and the currency exchange rate will be somewhat different, most probably better than they are today.

This means that applying for a skilled visa now rather than waiting could actually mean that you find yourself migrating at a better time than those who have been granted their visas in the last 12 months.

If you are a skilled individual and are contemplating a move to Australia some of the above issues might have crossed your mind.
If you would like to talk about your concerns and to discuss the migration process more fully please contact us.
Go Matilda has many years of experience assisting with Australian visa applications, and we will be pleased to have a free initial discussion about your situation, your visa strategy, and how we might help, after which we can send you a no obligation proposal as to our fees.

Read Full Post »