Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens has signalled interest rates are on their way back up with mortgage rates likely to edge up between half and a full percentage point.
Giving evidence to the House of Representatives economics committee in Canberra, Mr Stevens said the RBA’s focus continued to be on what mortgage rates were offered by commercial banks rather than on the Reserve’s official cash rate.
He said given the commercial banks had lifted rates over and above what the RBA had done, there was still about a half and a full percentage point to go before mortgage rates were back to what the Reserve would consider close to their long term average.
“There’s a little distance to go yet before I think you could characterise the setting of interest rates as normal or average,” he said.
The RBA surprised markets by leaving official rates on hold at its February meeting.
Mr Stevens said on top of the Reserve’s own lift in official rates, the commercial banks actions had effectively delivered three and a half interest rate rises to mortgages cases, and in the case of Westpac customers, four rate hikes.
He said one of the advantages of lifting rates as the RBA did in the last three months of 2009 was that it could hold rates in February and get a clearer picture of how the economy was travelling.
“You get that luxury when you can wait a little a bit further down the line,” he said.
Mr Stevens said Australia had performed much better than even the RBA had expected out of the global recession.
But he warned that meant the economy was now heading into an upswing stronger than otherwise would have been the case.
“With the economy having had only a mild downturn with begin the upswing with less spare capacity than would typically be the case after a recession,” he said.
“There’s less scope for robust demand growth without inflation starting to rise again down the track.
“Monetary policy must be careful not to overstay a very expansionary setting.”
Mr Stevens said the resources sector in particular was looking to grow quickly, with the terms of trade likely to head back to the record highs seen in 2008 this year.
He also highlighted the strength of Australia’s sovereign debt position, hosing down fears the country was carrying too much debt.
“Australia’s position is by any measure very strong indeed,” he said.
The governor also played down fears raised by Opposition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce that Australia could default on its debts.
Mr Stevens said Australia had never defaulted before and there were no signs it would now.
“I very much doubt there ever will be,” he said.
“Monetary policy must be careful not to overstay a very expansionary setting.”
Mr Stevens said the resources sector in particular was looking to grow quickly, with the terms of trade likely to head back to the record highs seen in 2008 this year.
He also highlighted the strength of Australia’s sovereign debt position, hosing down fears the country was carrying too much debt.
“Australia’s position is by any measure very strong indeed,” he said.
The governor also played down fears raised by Opposition finance spokesman Barnaby Joyce that Australia could default on its debts.
Mr Stevens said Australia had never defaulted before and there were no signs it would now.
“I very much doubt there ever will be,” he said.
Source www.thewest.com.au
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